Q4, 2023
Key Highlights
Global economic growth in the fourth quarter will be soft but not disastrous, thanks largely to the resilience of the US economy.
The most announced recession in history is once again postponed. Recession risks shifted forward to 2024.
Central Banks on hold. Interest rates (outside of Japan) are close to a peak.
Disinflation process continues, Central Banks’ targets not achieved before the end of 2024
New mantra from almost all policymakers is “higher for longer” interest rate
