December - January, 2022


 

Key Highlights

  • Fears about the Omicron variant, Inflation and a more hawkish FED are weighing on investors sentiment and increasing volatility in equity markets. Global growth remains above trend supported by fiscal stimulus and an accommodative global monetary stance.

  • Our base scenario still see the global economy to grow above trend and inflation to fade in the second part of next year.

  • Despite the fact that emergency stimulus measures are likely to be reduced in coming months, global economic growth will remain well sustained by fiscal stimulus and an accommodative global monetary stance. Less restrictions on mobility thanks to vaccines and COVID-Pass.

  • Employment’s data will allow the US Federal Reserve to reduce its asset purchases program in the coming months (tapering).

  • Over the coming weeks, we will get a more clear idea of the nature and extent of the risk posed by the omicron variant, and greater clarity about the likely path for FED policy.


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May - June, 2022

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October - November, 2021