Q2, 2023
Key Highlights
The credit squeeze after the banking crisis will weigh on the economic growth in the quarters ahead and will probably lead to a recession in 2024.
Inflation peak has been reached, but central bank’s goals will only be reached in 2024.
High volatility in interest rates.
Inverted yield curves in US and Europe point to high probability of recession in next quarters FED on hold but ECB still hawkish.
US stocks not cheap versus bonds and other developed indexes.
Geopolitical risks increasing but hard to predict (Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, Korea).
Debt ceiling issue approaching.